No Election Model This Year

This election feels like a democratic colonoscopy. It is uncomfortable and on the other side lays a diagnosis of just how sick we are.

I have so many things I want to say, most of which is just complaining. But no one wants to read that. And hell, I don’t want to write that. So instead I will share the best analysis I have seen leading up to election day.

The structure of the two political parties

Patronage vs. Constituent Parties (Or Why Republican Party Leaders Matter More Than Democratic Ones) | Tanner Green

If you only read one thing on here, this should be it. All the other links will be irrelevant come post-election, but this will continue to be important to understand.

This is a very interesting opinion piece on how power flows through the parties. Republicans are the “Patronage” party, where you better align yourself to the leader and go-along for the ride to gain influence. Case in point: Liz Cheney getting disowned for bucking Trump-ism. Compare this to the Democrats who are the “Constituent ” Party, where power is gained by fighting for one’s own reference group and using that as a wedge to drive your agenda. Case in point: The squad hold non-mainstream liberal views yet get outsized airtime and influence on party leaders.

Election models and polls analysis

FiveThirtyEight
The gold standard of election modeling in my opinion.

• Presidency (Currently 53% for Trump, 47% for Harris)
• Senate (Currently 90% for Republicans, 10% for Democrats)
• House (Currently 52% for Republicans, 48% for Democrats)

Polymarket
A betting marketplace for various real-world events.

• Presidency (Currently 54% for Trump, 46% for Harris)
• Senate (Currently 89% for Republicans, 21% for Democrats)
• House (54% for Democrats, 46% for Republicans)

Other links

Why Trump Has a More Plausible Path to the Presidency, in 19 Maps | NYT

Nate Silver: Here’s What My Gut Says About the Election, but Don’t Trust Anyone’s Gut, Even Mine | Nate Silver, NYT

Forget Swing States. It’s These 21 Microcommunities That Could Decide the Election | NYT

10 key demographic groups that could decide the presidential election | NPR
A good summary all in one place, rather than me patching together a bunch of articles I read about each.

Which way will swing voters lean in America’s election? | Economist

Stance on political issues

Top issues for voters in the 2024 election | Pew Research

A voting platform which shows how Americans side with various issues | I Side With
This allows you to zoom down into detailed issues within a broader category, for example: “Should immigrants be required to learn English?”

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A wild week awaits!

Peter

P.S. You can find my 2020 election model here.